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📡 Freight Market Intelligence

🔒 Supply Constraint Estimator 🇺🇸 US · v1

Estimate how tight freight capacity looks based on the supply-side signals you enter. This is a self-computed read of capacity pressure — not an official market index, forecast, or rate recommendation. All inputs are yours to enter; QuicklyFig supplies none of them.

How this tool differs from the Conditions Interpreter The Freight Market Conditions Interpreter gives a broad market read — tightening, loosening, transitional, or supply-constrained — across rate pressure, volume, and cost signals combined. This tool focuses specifically on supply-side tightness degree: how constrained is available capacity right now, and which capacity signals are driving it? It adds two structural inputs — carrier exits trend and driver availability — not in the Interpreter, and outputs a graded scale (LOW through HIGH) rather than a single market-state label.
Supply-Side Signals — all optional, all user-entered, no defaults
e.g., "June 2026" or "Q2 2026" — for your reference only
FreightWaves SONAR — enter your own value only. QuicklyFig does not provide, license, or reproduce this figure.
FreightWaves SONAR — enter your value only, from your own subscription or broker. Leave blank if unavailable.
Latest vs. prior period. FRED FRGSHPUSM649NCIS → (monthly, free)
FRED PCU484121484121 → (monthly, free)
EIA Weekly On-Highway Diesel → (weekly, free)
Are you seeing more or fewer carriers leaving the market? Inform from FMCSA data, industry reporting, or broker network intelligence. This is your observation — not a QuicklyFig-supplied figure.
Is it getting easier or harder to find qualified drivers? Based on your own recruiting experience, local market conditions, or carrier conversations. This is your observation — not a QuicklyFig-supplied figure.
📊 Signal Breakdown — Score Contribution
    🔗 Related Tools
    Use these alongside this estimator for a fuller picture:
    Freight Market Conditions Interpreter → broad market read (tightening / loosening / supply-constrained) Freight Rate Trend Tracker → period-over-period TL and LTL PPI movement Carrier Cost Pressure Index → your cost growth vs. your rate movement
    📂 Primary Sources — Confirm Before Acting
    Educational Tool — Not Advice The Supply Constraint Estimator is an educational tool that organizes the signals you enter into a plain-language read of supply-side tightness. The constraint score shown is self-computed from your inputs and is not an official market index, published benchmark, forecast, or prediction. It is not financial, business, trading, tax, or legal advice and not a rate recommendation. OTRI is a proprietary index of FreightWaves SONAR; QuicklyFig does not provide, license, or reproduce it — any OTRI value shown here is one you entered yourself. Carrier-exit and driver-availability inputs are your own observations, not QuicklyFig data. Always confirm current figures with the primary sources such as FRED, EIA, and Cass Information Systems and make your own business decisions. US market only (v1). QuicklyFig is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in partnership with FreightWaves, Cass Information Systems, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
    How the Estimator Works

    The Supply Constraint Estimator maps supply-side signals you enter into a graded read of capacity tightness. It uses a deterministic scoring model — each signal direction contributes a fixed number of points, and the total determines the band. No embedded data values, no live feed, no defaults.

    The Four Constraint Bands

    🟢 LOW
    Score ≤ 0
    🟡 MODERATE
    Score 1–2
    🟠 ELEVATED
    Score 3–5
    🔴 HIGH
    Score ≥ 6

    Signal Scoring

    OTRI % (if entered): below 8% = −1 (low rejections, capacity available); 8–14% = +1 (moderate rejections); 15%+ = +2 (elevated rejections, carriers are turning down loads).

    Cass Shipments: Rising = −1 (demand being absorbed, less relative pressure on supply); Flat = 0; Falling = +1 (volume contracting while supply may not adjust as fast).

    Truckload PPI: Rising = +1 (rate pressure consistent with tighter supply); Flat = 0; Falling = −1.

    Diesel: Rising = +1 (cost pressure can accelerate capacity exits); Flat = 0; Falling = −1.

    Carrier exits: Fewer exits = −1 (capacity stabilizing); Normal churn = 0; More exits = +2 (structural capacity departure — highest-weight supply signal).

    Driver availability: Easier to find = −1; Normal = 0; Harder to find = +2 (supply-side squeeze at the labor level — highest-weight supply signal).

    Minimum Signal Gate

    At least three signals must be entered before the tool generates a read. A constraint score built from one or two signals would be unreliable. Enter more signals for a stronger read.

    Why carrier exits and driver availability carry double weight (+2)

    These are structural supply indicators — they describe the actual stock of capacity in the market, not just price signals. A carrier that has closed or a driver who has left the industry does not re-enter quickly when conditions improve. Price signals like PPI and diesel are lagging and can move for demand reasons unrelated to supply. Carrier exits and driver availability are the most direct supply-side observables available without a proprietary subscription.

    Frequently Asked Questions
    How is the Supply Constraint Estimator different from the Freight Market Conditions Interpreter?
    The Freight Market Conditions Interpreter gives a broad market read — tightening, loosening, transitional, or supply-constrained — across rate pressure, volume, and cost signals combined. The Supply Constraint Estimator focuses specifically on supply-side tightness degree: how constrained is available capacity right now, and which capacity signals are driving it? It adds two structural inputs — carrier exits trend and driver availability — that the Interpreter does not include, and outputs a graded scale (LOW through HIGH) rather than a single market-state label.
    What does a HIGH supply constraint read mean?
    A HIGH read means the signals you entered collectively score 6 or above — typically a combination of carrier exits accelerating, drivers harder to find, elevated OTRI, and rising diesel. It is not a prediction or guarantee that rates will rise. It is a self-computed read of the supply-side picture based only on what you entered. Always confirm with primary sources before making business decisions.
    Where do I find carrier exit and driver availability data?
    These inputs are observational — you enter what you are seeing or hearing, not a precise data series. Carrier exit trend can be informed by FMCSA carrier authority data (fmcsa.dot.gov), industry reporting, or conversations with your broker network. Driver availability is often observable through local recruiting conditions, trucking school inquiries, or carrier-level hiring trends. Leave blank if you do not have a current read — the tool will work from the signals you do enter, as long as you enter at least three.
    Where do I get OTRI, Cass Shipments, and TL PPI?
    OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) is a proprietary FreightWaves SONAR index — you need a SONAR subscription or a broker who shares the figure with you. QuicklyFig does not provide it. Cass Shipments (FRGSHPUSM649NCIS) and Truckload PPI (PCU484121484121) are free on FRED and update monthly. Diesel direction comes from the EIA weekly on-highway diesel report at eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/. All are free and public except OTRI.
    Why does Cass Shipments rising score as loosening in this tool?
    This tool measures supply-side constraint specifically — not overall market tightness. Rising freight volumes mean more freight demand is being absorbed, which on its own reduces the relative pressure on available capacity. That is a loosening signal from the supply perspective. It does not mean rates will fall — rising volumes can coexist with rising rates if capacity cannot respond fast enough. The tool flags that combination in the coherence note when it appears.
    Is this tool a prediction of where freight rates are going?
    No. This tool makes no predictions about future rates, market conditions, or business outcomes. It organizes supply-side signals you enter into a plain-language read of current capacity pressure. Rate movements depend on many factors beyond supply-side constraint — demand conditions, shipper behavior, seasonality, fuel, and more. This is an educational tool for context only.
    Required Disclaimer The Supply Constraint Estimator is an educational tool that organizes the signals you enter into a plain-language read of supply-side tightness. The constraint score shown is self-computed from your inputs and is not an official market index, published benchmark, forecast, or prediction. It is not financial, business, trading, tax, or legal advice and not a rate recommendation. OTRI is a proprietary index of FreightWaves SONAR; QuicklyFig does not provide, license, or reproduce it — any OTRI value shown here is one you entered yourself. Carrier-exit and driver-availability inputs are your own observations, not QuicklyFig data. Always confirm current figures with the primary sources such as FRED, EIA, and Cass Information Systems and make your own business decisions. US market only (v1). QuicklyFig is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in partnership with FreightWaves, Cass Information Systems, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the U.S. Energy Information Administration.