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📡 Freight Market Intelligence

🔄 Freight Market Cycle Position Tool 🇺🇸 US · v1

Classify where the current freight market appears to sit in the freight cycle — Recovery, Peak, Contraction, or Trough — based on the signals you enter. This is a self-computed educational read — not a forecast, prediction, or rate recommendation. All inputs are yours to enter; QuicklyFig supplies none of them.

How this tool differs from the Conditions Interpreter The Freight Market Conditions Interpreter gives a broad current-market read (tightening, loosening, transitional, supply-constrained). This tool classifies the same signals into a freight-cycle phase — Recovery, Peak, Contraction, or Trough — to help you understand the broader cycle context.
Cycle Signals — all optional, all user-entered, no defaults
e.g., "June 2026" or "Q2 2026" — for your reference only
Overall shipment volume direction. FRED FRGSHPUSM649NCIS (Cass Shipments) → (monthly, free)
Truckload PPI direction. FRED PCU484121484121 (TL PPI) → (monthly, free)
How available is truck capacity in the markets you operate in? Based on your own experience, broker network, or OTRI (entered below if available).
Are your operating costs rising faster than your revenue? Use the Carrier Cost Pressure Index to calculate this.
EIA Weekly On-Highway Diesel → (weekly, free)
FreightWaves SONAR — enter your own value only. QuicklyFig does not provide, license, or reproduce this figure.
FreightWaves SONAR — enter your value only, from your own subscription or broker. Leave blank if unavailable.
📊 Phase Score Comparison — all four phases scored
Each signal contributes points to one or more phases. The phase with the highest score and a clear lead is shown above. Close scores produce a MIXED read.
📋 Signal Breakdown — score contribution by input
    🔗 Related FMI Tools — use alongside this read
    Freight Market Conditions Interpreter → broad current-market read (tightening / loosening / transitional / supply-constrained) Freight Rate Trend Tracker → period-over-period TL and LTL PPI movement Carrier Cost Pressure Index → your cost growth vs. your rate movement Supply Constraint Estimator → supply-side tightness graded read (LOW through HIGH)
    📂 Primary Sources — Confirm Before Acting
    Educational Tool — Not Advice The Freight Market Cycle Position Tool is an educational tool that organizes the signals you enter into a plain-language cycle-position read. Cycle-phase labels describe how a market with the signals you entered has historically been characterized. They are not a statement about which phase comes next, when any transition will occur, or how rates will move. The freight cycle does not advance on a fixed schedule and past sequences do not predict future ones. This tool contains no live data; every value is one you entered. The output is self-computed from your inputs and is not an official market index, published benchmark, forecast, prediction, financial advice, business advice, tax advice, legal advice, or rate recommendation. OTRI is a proprietary index of FreightWaves SONAR; QuicklyFig does not provide, license, or reproduce it — any OTRI value shown here is one you entered yourself. Always confirm current figures with primary sources such as FRED, EIA, and Cass Information Systems and make your own business decisions. US market only (v1). QuicklyFig is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in partnership with FreightWaves, Cass Information Systems, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
    How the Freight Cycle Works — Educational Context

    The freight cycle is a recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in the US trucking market driven by the interplay between freight demand (shipper volumes), available capacity (carrier count, driver count, equipment), and operating costs (fuel, insurance, maintenance). The cycle has historically repeated in a broad four-phase pattern — though the timing, length, and amplitude of each phase vary considerably across cycles.

    The descriptions below are historical characterizations of what these phases have typically looked like. They are not predictions about any current or future market condition.

    🟢 Recovery Recovery has historically been characterized by freight volumes beginning to grow after a period of softness, rates rising from a lower base as new demand absorbs the capacity that remained after Contraction, and cost pressure easing as fuel and insurance stabilize. Capacity remains relatively available early in Recovery before demand growth begins to strain it.
    🟡 Peak Peak has historically been characterized by rates at or near cycle highs, capacity tightly utilized, and carriers rejecting a meaningful share of electronic tenders (reflected in elevated OTRI readings). Rising diesel and cost pressure have historically compressed the spread between revenue per mile and operating cost per mile even as headline rates appeared strong.
    🔴 Contraction Contraction has historically been characterized by freight volumes declining, rates softening as available capacity chases a shrinking freight base, and cost pressures persisting or rising even as revenue falls. This combination has historically compressed carrier margins, contributing to carrier exits and driver attrition that eventually reduce supply enough to set the stage for Recovery.
    🔵 Trough Trough has historically been characterized by rates near cycle lows, capacity loose and available, and tender rejection rates low as carriers accept the available freight. Diesel and cost pressure have historically eased in the Trough, but flat or declining volumes make revenue improvement dependent on volume growth rather than rate negotiation alone.

    Why cycle context matters for operators

    Understanding cycle position helps operators contextualize the signals they see every day. Rate pressure that looks alarming in isolation may be normal Contraction behavior; capacity that seems tight may reflect early Peak dynamics. Cycle context does not tell you what rates will do — it describes where the market has historically looked similar and what conditions have historically accompanied that position.

    How this tool scores cycle position

    Each signal you enter contributes points to one or more phase scores based on the direction of that signal relative to historical phase patterns. Rising volume contributes most strongly to Recovery. Rising rates contribute to both Recovery and Peak. Falling rates and falling volume together score highest for Contraction. Loose capacity and low OTRI score for Trough. When one phase score leads by 2 or more points and at least three signals are entered, that phase is shown as the result. When scores are close (within 1 point), the result is MIXED / TRANSITIONAL.

    OTRI interpretation in this tool

    OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) is a proprietary FreightWaves SONAR index measuring the percentage of electronic freight tenders that carriers reject. QuicklyFig does not provide OTRI values. If you have access to SONAR or receive the figure from a broker, you may enter it yourself. In this tool: OTRI below 8% adds a point to Trough (low rejections, capacity available); 8–14% is transitional with no phase bonus; 15% or above adds two points to Peak (elevated rejections, carriers highly selective).

    Frequently Asked Questions
    How is this tool different from the Freight Market Conditions Interpreter?
    The Freight Market Conditions Interpreter gives a broad current-market read — tightening, loosening, transitional, or supply-constrained — based on the balance of rate pressure, volume, and cost signals. The Cycle Position Tool classifies those same kinds of signals into a freight-cycle phase — Recovery, Peak, Contraction, or Trough — to help you understand the broader cycle context. The Interpreter is a current-state read; the Cycle Position Tool places that state on a repeating historical pattern.
    What does MIXED / TRANSITIONAL mean?
    MIXED / TRANSITIONAL means the signals you entered do not clearly favor a single freight-cycle phase — either the scores are close across two or more phases, or there are too few signals for a confident read. This is common at turning points in the cycle, when leading indicators shift before lagging ones follow. It is the honest result when signals conflict. Entering additional signals or waiting for more data releases often resolves the ambiguity.
    Is this a prediction of where rates are going?
    No. This tool makes no predictions or forecasts about future rates, volumes, or market conditions. Cycle-phase labels describe how a market with the signals you entered has historically been characterized. The freight cycle does not advance on a fixed schedule and past sequences do not predict future ones. This is an educational tool for context only — not financial, investment, business, or rate advice.
    Where do I get OTRI, Cass Shipments, and TL PPI?
    OTRI (Outbound Tender Rejection Index) is a proprietary FreightWaves SONAR index — you need a SONAR subscription or a broker who shares the figure with you. QuicklyFig does not provide it. Cass Shipments (FRGSHPUSM649NCIS) and Truckload PPI (PCU484121484121) are free on FRED and update monthly. Diesel direction comes from the EIA weekly on-highway diesel report at eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/. All are free and public except OTRI.
    Why does the same input (like rising rates) score for more than one phase?
    Because many signals are consistent with more than one phase. Rising rates can appear in both Recovery (rates climbing off a low base) and Peak (rates at or near cycle highs). The tool resolves this by looking at the combination of all entered signals together. Rising rates paired with rising volumes, balanced capacity, and easing costs points to Recovery. Rising rates paired with tight capacity, high OTRI, and rising diesel points to Peak. Context across multiple signals is what produces the phase read — no single signal determines the result.
    Why US only in v1?
    The public indicator stack underlying this tool — Cass Shipments, TL PPI, EIA diesel — is US-based with monthly or weekly cadence. Canadian freight data (StatCan for-hire carrier price index) is quarterly and national-level. A Canada-specific cycle context tool is planned for a future version within QuicklyFig's existing Canada vertical.
    Required Disclaimer The Freight Market Cycle Position Tool is an educational tool that organizes the signals you enter into a plain-language cycle-position read. Cycle-phase labels describe how a market with the signals you entered has historically been characterized. They are not a statement about which phase comes next, when any transition will occur, or how rates will move. The freight cycle does not advance on a fixed schedule and past sequences do not predict future ones. This tool contains no live data; every value is one you entered. The output is self-computed from your inputs and is not an official market index, published benchmark, forecast, prediction, financial advice, business advice, tax advice, legal advice, or rate recommendation. OTRI is a proprietary index of FreightWaves SONAR; QuicklyFig does not provide, license, or reproduce it — any OTRI value shown here is one you entered yourself. Always confirm current figures with primary sources such as FRED, EIA, and Cass Information Systems and make your own business decisions. US market only (v1). QuicklyFig is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in partnership with FreightWaves, Cass Information Systems, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the U.S. Energy Information Administration.